July 25, 2025
In his past State of the Nation Addresses (SONA), President Marcos Jr. has repeatedly cast himself as a champion of climate action, placing renewable energy “at the top of [his] climate agenda”.
He has previously pledged to raise renewables’ share in the power mix to 35% by 2030 and 50% by 2040, backed by nearly P3 trillion in green-lane certified investments. Yet since he took office in 2022, renewable energy’s share has stagnated at around 22%.
Liquefied natural gas is a false promise
Instead of accelerating the shift to renewable energy, the Marcos administration has doubled down on liquefied natural gas (LNG), misleadingly branded as a “transition” fuel.
Under the Philippine Energy Plan, gas capacity is expected to grow from 3.7 to 6.1 gigawatts by 2030, even as the Malampaya gas field nears depletion by 2027. Without new domestic sources, the country will be forced to rely on imported LNG.
Since 2023, two LNG import terminals have been operating in Batangas, partially owned by Japanese firms —Tokyo Gas, Osaka Gas, and the Japan Bank for International Cooperation. As Japan’s domestic demand for LNG declined, these companies redirected excess supply by promoting gas infrastructure across South and Southeast Asia — effectively manufacturing demand, with over 30 gas-related projects now underway in the region.
In the Philippines, this has come at a steep cost: each LNG shipment has been priced at around $45 million. As with other fossil fuels, these costs are typically passed on to consumers through “pasaload” or the automatic fuel pass-through provision in power contracts.
Despite these red flags, the government continues to expand LNG infrastructure. Last December, the Philippine Competition Commission approved a $3.3 billion joint venture between Prime Infrastructure Capital and Tokyo Gas to build another major LNG terminal.
Then, earlier this year, President Marcos Jr. signed Republic Act 12120, or the Philippine Natural Gas Industry Development Act, declaring natural gas “safe, efficient, and indispensable” for energy security, effectively entrenching LNG in the country’s long-term energy plans.
But LNG is still a fossil fuel — its emissions, price volatility, and import dependence run counter to our climate targets, economic resilience, and energy independence. LNG investments lock the Philippines into decades of carbon-intensive infrastructure, making the clean energy transition harder and slower.
Doubling down on expensive, imported fossil fuels only deepens our exposure to global shocks and, worse, diverts public and private capital away from real, clean energy solutions like solar, geothermal, and wind energy.
The economics of renewable energy are no longer a dream
According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance, solar is now the cheapest source of electricity in the Philippines. The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) — a measure of the average cost of generating power over the lifetime of an energy asset — can go as low as $35 per megawatt-hour for utility-scale solar.
In contrast, the lowest LCOEs for combined-cycle gas turbines and coal-fired power are both at $87 per megawatt-hour, making solar up to 60% cheaper.
Moreover, the Philippines holds significant untapped potential in geothermal and offshore wind energy. Yet despite this advantage, only 35 megawatts have been added over the past decade.
While geothermal and offshore wind remain costlier than solar and onshore wind, their baseload generation profiles complement the gaps left by solar and onshore wind.
Pairing solar and wind with battery energy storage can also further address intermittency and support a clean, resilient grid.
By 2030, the LCOE for solar-plus-storage is projected to fall to as low as $52 per megawatt-hour, and $33 by 2050. Onshore wind with storage is expected to reach $86 per megawatt-hour by 2030, and $50 by 2050. These cost declines are driven by continued advancements in solar panels, wind turbines, and lithium-ion battery technology.
While the government stalls, civil society organizations and the private sector have stepped in to drive the country’s renewable energy transition. The Climate Reality Project Philippines, in coordination with the Department of Energy, has spearheaded campaigns in promoting the Green Energy Option Program (GEOP), which empowers consumers to choose renewable power.
Reality check for a just transition
But as renewables scale up, some projects risk repeating old extractive models. In Masungi Georeserve — a globally recognized and award-winning conservation site — proposed wind turbines have sparked land conflicts and threatened its fragile limestone karst forest.
Renewable energy must be truly clean; it must not replicate the same top-down, destructive practices it’s meant to replace. Without strong social and environmental safeguards, the transition risks becoming just another form of greenwashed development.
The Philippines stands at an energy crossroads. We can either stay locked into the costly, carbon-intensive cycle of imported fossil fuels or chart a new course with cheap, clean, domestic energy. The economics are clear. The technology is ready. What remains is the political will to match promises with action.
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